Nearly 7 in 10 mortgage brokers expect BOE base rate to be higher than the current level by the start of 2026, survey shows

The survey involved 300 mortgage brokers across the UK and was commissioned by Butterfield Mortgages, who specialise in providing residential mortgages against prime properties in London and the South of England. The research highlighted that UK mortgage brokers expect the base rate to rise again by January 2026, while also forecasting greater regulatory complexity in the property market over the next year.

Further findings revealed that 67% of brokers surveyed believe that interest rates and borrowing costs will be the most significant factors influencing property market performance in 2025. Additionally, a similar amount (64%) revealed that the recent regulatory and tax changes have added another layer of complexity to the property investment landscape.

Alpa Bhakta, CEO of Butterfield Mortgages in the UK, said: “It’s no surprise that most UK brokers remain focused on the Bank of England’s interest rate decisions—these have long been, and will continue to be, the key driver of market activity. However, it is surprising that 69% of brokers expect the base rate to be higher at the start of 2026, especially given January’s decline in inflation and the Bank of England’s indication that further rate cuts could follow.”