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March 2024 - Transport & Infrastructure

Rail passengers could almost double by 2050: According to a new report by the Railway Industry Association (RIA), rail passenger numbers could almost double by 2050. The report found that rail passenger volumes could grow by at least 37% but may increase by as much as 97% in the next 25 years. These figures equate to an average growth rate of between 1.6% and 3% per year.

RIA conducted this research to consider the potential growth in passenger demand over the longer term in the context of the ongoing recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic.

The research also looked at the drivers pushing this increase in rail travel. Employers wanting their employees back in the office was found to be the key driver, with 37% of current passengers saying they plan to use the railway more in the next few months. Only 9% of current passengers said they will be using it less.

Another key driver was the predicted increase in population. At the beginning of February, ONS (Office for National Statistics) predicted that the UK population will rise by 6.6 million or 10% in the next 15 years, putting the total figure at 73.7 million - this will have significant implications for transport, including trains.

The report by RIA stated that “under any scenario” of growth, rail demand in the UK will grow beyond today’s network - this is growth that the government policies and rail services and operators will need to accommodate.

Darren Caplan, Railway Industry Association CEO, said: “This landmark report sets out a range of scenarios for future rail passenger growth, yet under all of them passenger numbers grow, which will have clear impacts on capacity in the future.”

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